Some Manvel Students Will Be Rezoned… Again

UPDATE: The next Rezoning meeting is scheduled for February 11th at the Tommy King Administration Building located at 301 E. House St. in Alvin. Perhaps this meeting should be held at the Liberty Alumni Hall/Heritage Complex • 10855 Iowa Colony Blvd., Iowa Colony to accommodate the taxpayers affected by the proposed changes.

Many high school students could be rezoned as early as next school year if the School Boundary Advisory Committee ends up signing off on the proposed changes.  The Alvin ISD school board will still have to approve it but it seems to be a no brainer because Shadow Creek High School (SCHS) is already beyond its capacity.  On the other hand, Manvel High school was at least 600 students below its capacity this school year.  Alvin ISD builds its High Schools for a capacity of 2,500 students and it is against its policy for the schools to be overcrowded.  The reason provided is it allows for a better learning environment for the students in a smaller school and one can presume a security reason too. 

American Canal Boundary

Currently, the SCHS southern boundary goes all the way to SH 6 to the west of SH 288.  It excludes the subdivision of Lakes of Savannah.  The proposed new southern boundary for SCHS zoning will be moved all the way up to the American Canal which is basically located between CR 59 (Magnolia Parkway) and CR 58.  It actually draws a line between the Southfork and Pomona neighborhoods.  Students who reside in Southfork will continue to attend SCHS and everybody else from Pomona down south, Rodeo Palms included, will transition back to Manvel High School.  Some exceptions will be granted for some students to remain at their current campus as the transfer policy has been updated. These requests will be approved on a case by case basis. 

Current HS Zoning

Bursting At The Seam

Keeping in mind the schools are built for 2,500 capacity, the current enrollment for the school year 2019-20 is 1,973 for MHS and 2,796 for SCHS.  Without the proposed changes SCHS could have more than 3,000 students next year while MHS would be just shy of 2,200.  If the rezoning changes go through, the enrollment forecast for the school year 2020-21 would be 2,568 for MHS and 2,604 for SCHS.  As you can see, it almost evens out the number of students for each school.  The problem comes in 2021-22, despite the rezoning changes, the projected enrollment forecast 3,001 students for MHS.  SCHS should remain stable with 2,613 students.  The growth in school enrollment for MHS is fueled by several neighborhood projects expanding at a crazy pace.  All combined Meridiana, Sterling Lakes/Sierra Vista, and Pomona area will have thousands of new homes added in the next 5 years.  On the contrary, Shadow Creek Ranch area is almost built out so growth is not so much expected in that area. 

Proposed New HS Zoning

Help Is On The Way

Fortunately, Alvin ISD High School number 4’s construction is underway on CR 64 in Iowa Colony.  It is located right across from the new stadium Freedom Field.  The school is projected to open for the school year 2022-23 and this will be a more than welcomed new campus for the district as MHS that will just be about to run out of space.  The School District is aware that changing schools is not ideal for students so we might expect them to be lenient with its transfer policy.  It is too early to determine the future enrollment once the new High School is open but one can expect new zoning changes for some neighborhoods. 

Alvin ISD in numbers

-10 Elementary Schools, 5 Junior High Schools and 1 High School opened since 2008-09

-27,063 students enrolled in the district

-252 square-miles covered by the district

-32,369 enrollment projections in 5 years from now

-1,500 news homes expected to be built within the next 12 months in the district

-3,197 employees work for the district

– $294,066,662 budget for 2018-19

2 thoughts on “Some Manvel Students Will Be Rezoned… Again

  1. So if the projection numbers are right the district really need a 3rd high school? Shouldn’t they district be looking at this now as opposed to moving the kids over and over again? This looks to be just the district just trying to do the easy route as opposed to tackling the real issue. Unfortunately the growth won’t stop given the desirability of the neighborhoods

  2. Pomona residents have many questions that have not been answered by Alvin ISD. Most of those who have written to the Alvin ISD Board of Trustees and the Superintendent have yet to receive a response. A select few residents have had limited interaction, but our questions and concerns remain unanswered.

    Question: The opening of JH#8 in 2021-2022 in the Meridiana area does not and will not address current capacity issues south of CR59 and North of Hwy 6 for the long-term. Where will JH#9 be located?

    Question: Rezoning every 1-2 years shows a systemic problem that needs to be resolved by the Board and demographer without sole reliance on the use of SBAC. Addressing overcapacity concerns annually by rezoning is not good practice, especially during years where no new schools have been opened or leading into a year where no new junior high or high schools will open such as the 2020-2021 school year. Since overcapacity continues to occur, what is AISD doing with the demographer to ensure additional data is included for AISD to accurately forecast all areas/zones and provide adequate number of campuses/classrooms for all grade levels?

    Question: Why is rezoning occurring during years where no new schools have opened or are being opened during a coming school year when no new schools are opening?

    Follow-up: SBAC says they are being proactive to address overcapacity in certain areas – yet why was Pomona subdivision zoned to certain schools and then rezoned when McNair was built, and now proposed to be rezoned again? That is contradictory when SBAC and AISD have used the same demographer with the same forecasts. Yet 2 years later they now their current proposal states this is the better long-term recommendation. What suddenly changed that wasn’t already highlighted in 2016, 2017, or 2018 when they were prepping for the bond? If they got it wrong 2 years ago, they owe it to our community to explain why.

    Question: Why is AISD falling behind on building enough schools before overcapacity occurs for our immediate area (Not Meridiana)? Follow-up: Isn’t that the purpose of having a demographer?

    Question: Templeton Demographics have consistently under-forecasted in certain zones, resulting in overcapacity concerns for Alvin ISD in high scenario growth areas. Although Templeton Demographics serves as a demographer for many school districts, their quote 1% accuracy for the entire AISD does not reflect their gross inaccuracy in certain zones. Why does AISD continue to use Templeton Demographics, when overcapacity continues to occur?

    Follow-up: In comparing Alvin ISD’s 2017-2019 fall and spring demographic studies against other school district’s demographic studies that use Templeton Demographics and those districts that don’t use Templeton Demographics, for example, neighboring Fort Bend ISD and Katy ISD, the data provided by a different demographer company is overwhelmingly more encompassing.

    -Templeton Demographics: 20-30 pages long for the past 3 years; focused on primarily elementary school zones and provides little to no true “housing trends”.

    -Demographer – Population and Survey Analysts (PASA): Used by FBISD and Katy ISD provides 60-300 pages of detailed data allowing boards, committees, residents and districts they serve to make informed proactive long term decisions.

    -Templeton Demographics omits the demographic data needed for context and proper forecasting when then discussing school boundary zones, and instead focuses primarily on elementary school zones, and provides brief residential housing data, and little to no true “housing trends” that otherwise other demographers like PASA provide, such as:

    -Analysis by Land Use Zones

    -Assessment of Impacts of Local Ordinances

    -Studies in Future Infrastructure

    -Assessment of Inhibitors to Growth

    -Project New Housing by Yr. for every Subdivision & Apt. with Single-family & Multi-family housing with current occupancy, under construction and future)

    -Data showing students per housing yields for single-family housing by subdivisions and multi-family housing complexes; not just a District weighted average)

    -Assessment of Land Use Zones versus Attendance Zones

    -Socioeconomic characteristics by Land Use Zone

    -Development Density

    -Owner Change / Parsels for Sale

    -Development Overview with Plat Submittals

    -Real time and projected new housing occupancies with subdivision and each builders available and future lot counts. (PASA provides thus, whereas Templeton data is generalized for overall growth and is years behind in some subdivisions.)

    -Ratios of Students per Occupied Housing Units by Subdivision. (Again not just Elementary Zone)

    -Student Trends by Development with Absolute and Percentage Change for Subdivisions.

    -Differences in High, Moderate, Low Scenarios of Growth.

    -Resident & Geocoded Students

    -Transfer Patterns for Short-term Planning

    Question: Why is the new “Del Bello” subdivision (North of Hwy 6 East of 288) or the continued expansion of Rodeo Palms subdivision not included in any material provided by the demographer or used in consideration by SBAC?

    SCHS is only 1.5 -2 miles from the center of Pomona subdivision with continuous sidewalks, whereas MHS is over 7-8 miles away. Many Pomona students have a shorter travel distance than many Shadow Creek Ranch students.

    Question: KatyISD, FBISD, other school districts in our area had their “Attendance Boundary” meetings in October. This was well in advance to address changes and provide enough time for families to prepare. Why are the SBAC meetings, proposal and approval scheduled so late in the school year compared to other districts?

    Follow-up: Pending final presentation and approval of proposed boundary changes, why are students and families scheduled to be notified around spring break as this limits families’ timely ability to submit transfer documentation?

    Question: For how many years to come will SBAC be used?

    Follow-up: What other proactive measures are being utilized for AISD to provide an adequate number of campuses/classrooms for all grade levels.

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